Today's posting based on real clear politics polling.
I will keep up as much as possible with politics on my blog.
With less than one month to election day. This race is now almost decided with the poor performance of the first debate (by both Biden and Trump.)
The second debate is cancelled:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/presidential-debates-2020-trump-biden-11601048201
The death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg has placed a more dire clock for the election on both parties. COVID-19 is eroding the senate, the SCOTUS Ginsburg seat is still in play for vote after election (but after January confirmation?) As of now, it looks like the virus is on the supreme court, not any political party or human:
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/10/supreme-court-trump-covid/616608/
If the election was held today. I do predict Biden would win with around at least 373 electoral points out of the 270 needed to win the presidency.
If Trump cannot improve debate performance, then the electoral college will be a 100+ point blowout in favor of Biden. There is a chance that 2 or 3 states will be thin margin votes (less than a fraction of 1%) win for either presidential candidates.
I will only name states that are listed on realcearpolitics.com as toss-up or too close to call.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/create_your_own_president_map.html
States that are too close to call are
North Carolina
Florida
Michigan
Georgia (thin margin)
Arizona
Iowa
Ohio (thin margin)
States that would lean or vote for Biden
Wisconsin
Nevada
Pennsylvania
States that would lean or vote for Trump:
Texas
--
The numbers are:
biden 262
trump 163
toss up 113
----
no toss up
biden 339
trump 163
toss up 2 (ne and me electoral college districts not evaluated)
thin margin toss up 34 (ga and oh)
otherwise no toss up excluding ne and me especial electoral votes
biden 373
trump 163
----
If Biden keeps moving positive polling in his direction it is more than likely to win election.
*[The tone has changed by the progressive press that Trump has lost the faith of the people due to mismanagement of the current virus pandemic. Additionally, the looming disappointment of Biden losing to Trump might be related to the carryover effect from last several month's progressive press saying that Trump will win the electoral college with unpopular vote (again) due to low Democratic voter turnout. The Democratic party is not helping the situation due to taking green party candidates off multiple state ballots. It is important to maintain choice.]
*I have said this previously starred above. Overall, lets see what happens in the state of Maine with ranked choice voting. It might be worth studying the results if Maine votes for the green party candidate or if there is a valid polling split of a three way tie...? If not the presidential election then at least the senate candidate.
[because of such polling standards that might reduce democratic and republican party majorties in the Senate race; I will track the senate race too.]
The pandemic is still taking its toll, there is a waiting game of what would happen when vaccine is released; and when N. America goes though Fall and Winter to see what covid-19 death rates would be. Such outcomes could affect whoever takes office next. It is now affecting real politics as the Atlantic article suggests with the Ginsburg seat nomination.
The sentiment is still true that Biden becoming president of the United States will depend on his debate performance. If Biden lacks performance, then we will have a true issue of seizure Trump or a lacking Biden presidency. Trump obviously lost the debate. Biden just went par or bogey (golf scoring terms.) If debate performance continues to be this bad; it is likely that a third party candidate will get more votes than what the "cabal" is comfortable with.
The winner of the election will get more debt (to GDP ratio) than the American people can handle. The true winners will be the owners and investors of the Federal Reserve. Winners will also be US treasury holders due to the new Federal Reserve's stance of inflating the currency (such a plan will not work due to how the trade policy is different this time; but maybe that is the plan...?)
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2020 SENATE RACE PREDICTIONS AND POLL WATCH
I will not produce a map as only 1/3 of all senate seats are ever up for election every two years.
The Senate is 2 seats per state with 6 year terms.
It is the opinion of tonyotag that there should be an amendment to the constitution of the United States to up representation to three Senators per state with 6 year terms (election every two years.) Why do so? To gauge the parties and the will of the people better; better statistical averaging over a 12 or 18 year period.
All numbers are based on polling
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/create_your_own_senate_map.html
senate
democrat 49
republican 46
toss up 5
no toss up
democrat 51
republican 49
States that will elect Senate democrat...maybe
Maine (depends on ranked choice voting; green party candidate may have a chance to win the seat)
Iowa
republican
*no states in this part of the list; many states are toss up for republican
toss up
North Carolina democrat
South Carolina (republican; thin margin)
Georgia republican
Michigan democrat
Montana republican
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