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Saturday, September 7, 2024

Presidential Election Prediction 09/07/2024 - Trade-off value vote?

 Many polls are getting very toss up in the toss up states. 

Was it the value detractor of anti-free speech censorship by Democrats? OR the trade-off anti-reproduction rights that Republicans represent? 

The Trade-off is intentional to divide and conquer a country. To bankrupt a country (or default it.) What are we going to do as citizens of the United States? 

Both of our political parties are being hijacked by crazies! 😧😞

Are both political parties afraid of libertarian polices?

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In any case my prediction right now is a very tight race of flipping the coin on who to vote for. Coin based odds on wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Checking_whether_a_coin_is_fair

So, if the election is fair we should see the "toss-up" states have a near 50% election within the standard deviation of one being and as of eligible voters = n and probability, p = 50% then per state and its weight of electoral votes: 

sqrt(n)/2 (just like the standard deviation of a coin flip, or at least a coin flip with some third party exceptions.) 

Hmmmm... seem similar to our election results right now for the past decade or so... 

My Electoral prediction: 

https://www.realclearpolling.com/my-map/2i3

AZ - leans R (cannot change it on the map due to technical error but it is 11 lean republican electoral votes 

NV - toss up 

WI - toss up 

MI - toss up 

PA - toss up 

NC - leans R 

GA - toss up 

NH - leans D 

VA - leans D 

Totals: 

Harris/Walz - 227

Trump/Vance - 229 

Toss Up - 82

***too tight to call at this time, more polls, more debates needed. 


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