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Friday, September 6, 2024

Sanchez: We're in a moment of uncertainty, waiting for the Fed to act

 https://youtu.be/qb-JekqcsKU?si=lo4mHKykdQSKiX4F

* [as reply to the last message] I was trying to be trite with my post above and you make a good point about incentives. 

Originally, inflation is an incentive to push people (humans, businesses, corporations, etc...) into looking into producing more resources (aggregate supply) while keeping (aggregate) demand on a budget. There is some framework suggesting that we have hit a supply wall as well. Aggregate supply is made up of four components: labor, capital, technology, and institutional structure. If aggregate supply remains the same, but demand still grows, then price levels will continue to increase (this case inflation) as GDP growth stalls, this results into a (near) vertical line. The only way to decrease price level changes is to curb aggregate demand as what the Federal Reserve has done... raise interest rates. 

The real issue is, have we as humans ran out of innovative ideas versus the velocity of demand to make an impact on aggregate supply to alleviate pricing pressure from demand? Probably not, unless there is resistance in the form of institutional structure corruption.... hence the UFO/UAP debate of hidden and unreleased technologies and why it might be important to tell the truth when it comes to "innovation;" but I digress. Furthermore, we do have some answer with labor and capital of the Cobb-Douglas production function: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobb%E2%80%93Douglas_production_function 

but, not for technology (which could be random in effects...? and institutional structure, which could become shadowy from security and anti-espionage reasons. 

So, to answer your question about inflation without jobs...ie stagflation. That is a scenario politicians, Federal Reserve officials, and economics want to avoid, but might not be able to in order to preserve growth (GDP or bank(s) balance sheet.) My personal policy is above 0 but keep inflation tame at 1% or lower until the stalemate ends or a better solution that is not commodity currency related. 

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