tonyotag's site: September 2024

*Its not just about selling weapons and contracts for profit; it is slowly rolling out a brave new empire for the sake of saving a lie for profits. This is piracy at the highest levels of social governance.

Friday, September 20, 2024

Mexico’s $7.5B Gamble to Disrupt the Panama Canal | WSJ Breaking Ground

https://youtu.be/NMDCKpmc-uo?si=LFqwxi1MMi257V3i

*Is there anyway to hook up the railway with a third route north towards the Mexican-American boarder? Is worth investigating the pros/cons of such

Secret to the success of the Roman Empire | Gregory Aldrete and Lex Fridman

https://youtu.be/J2moMc6Hsls?si=VzbXKwXzMuoF7QOT

*Does America have the same Military-Geopolitical strategy?

Thursday, September 19, 2024

JD Vance Leaves Out HALF The Story On Haitian Immigration!

https://youtu.be/hXaO-xkz-nM?si=JExt8XMskIgXy9xv

Wednesday, September 18, 2024

The genius of Roman Empire legal system | Gregory Aldrete and Lex Fridman

https://youtu.be/p5heaj2wTmA?si=I6tvX6AFUp4ZRAi4

Trump Assassin Connections To CIA!

https://youtu.be/nC6TTjA3P5g?si=fyiEJpIRnvxEbsvq

How To “Deprogram” Trump Cult Before 2024 Election w/ Dr. Steven Hassan

https://youtu.be/9PBBD_9t6wk?si=XBc4HgVt6UfGzS0A

The mysterious armor worn by Alexander the Great | Gregory Aldrete and Lex Fridman

https://youtu.be/oINnOcHrIOg?si=WeQJfVjtPPUcO4OE

Did Republicans Sale Out America for Drug Money?

https://youtu.be/DGPVR8KeM3I?si=azWW-8eTrUFX0fd2

Tuesday, September 17, 2024

School Lunch: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO)

https://youtu.be/-YypArYDcjA?si=4RUrPBy64E9_5381

Pollster surprised by voters' real-time debate reactions

https://youtu.be/sMvbA4d8Te4?si=zrvsSOIztzMM3yzg

Sunday, September 15, 2024

Why It’s So Hard To Build Nuclear Power Plants In The U.S.

https://youtu.be/_Js4R-kBtpY?si=nqEcQEAA_Ow90jHk

FULL VIDEO | 2024 Presidential Debate from ABC News

https://www.youtube.com/live/GdSDngmDLmY?si=G8WZ6LnhLLiiPOSV

*
What are you going to vote for to screw yourself? Many of these issues are side-show issues. Sure, you (and I) want to afford our reality but a few have planned to get rid of human rights by being aggressive against America. How? 1. Inflation without reciprocate labor or supply chain, 2. Masking life with taking away human rights, 3. Reinforcing tyranny without bloodshed (even when you "accidently" vote for it.) It is planned, it is implemented at this time. Who? I don't exactly know who, but I do see effects of their commands. (If their name is in the media, then they are not controlling this. They are taking orders from someone or something else.) The "uni-party" has to defend against accurate domestic policy to maintain a profit margin that is greater than market equilibrium. The uni-party wants to create more debt-to-GDP ratio and that will crowed out private investors and business owners from cheaper (lower interest rate) loans. The reasoning of how is not agreed upon, so there is a debate and vote about it. So here we are, what are you going to vote for to screw yourself? (I, tonyotag, am going to vote 3rd party. All politicians need to earn my vote.)
(PS. if there were commercials on the live version of the debate then shame for ABC and the politicians for allowing such for-profit behavior on an important American decision.)

Saturday, September 14, 2024

Victoria Nuland ADMITS To Sabotaging Ukraine Peace Deal ! w/ Mike Walz

https://youtu.be/yUqydBGBR5c?si=1AKLiqx_xymhUkUw

SHOCKING ALASKA POLL: Donald Trump Leads by FOUR in SOLID Red State

https://youtu.be/UAJ--SKZRsE?si=ufU7VYg9o8eu9JbG

*Alaska and Texas are bellwether states for the Republican party. Look to Kansas as a reason why....?

Wednesday, September 11, 2024

The 50 Year Plan To Legalize Corrupt Elections! w/ David Sirota

https://youtu.be/hdnbuHafG5Q?si=YcRZEhzoffzpQnRe

Tuesday, September 10, 2024

POWERFUL: Bill Maher DEFENDS RFK Jr.s Wife Cheryl Hines! w/ Ryan Dawson

https://youtu.be/2roE6dLlKDQ?si=7mCFJcIHPg19sqrz

Did the Bible Warn of Trump Coming To Power?

https://youtu.be/O9yoyx5-Mg4?si=ToUDxcWCNI7ySaNQ

*So when will Harris use this during the campaign? Maybe use this during debate?

Monday, September 9, 2024

This List Shows the Real Horror of Trump’s Presidency

https://youtu.be/YxB6U64BBv8?si=ss2Ttsm7p3gB3Lww

Sunday, September 8, 2024

Twitter Banned In Brazil By Dr. Evil Judge!w/ Matt Taibbi

https://youtu.be/KlVQ0kki29Q?si=oTzk34SD-8WmOdcg

Saturday, September 7, 2024

Presidential Election Prediction 09/07/2024 - Trade-off value vote?

Many polls are getting very toss up in the toss up states.

Was it the value detractor of anti-free speech censorship by Democrats? OR the trade-off anti-reproduction rights that Republicans represent?

The Trade-off is intentional to divide and conquer a country. To bankrupt a country (or default it.) What are we going to do as citizens of the United States?

Both of our political parties are being hijacked by crazies! 😧😞

Are both political parties afraid of libertarian polices?

-----

In any case my prediction right now is a very tight race of flipping the coin on who to vote for. Coin based odds on wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Checking_whether_a_coin_is_fair

So, if the election is fair we should see the "toss-up" states have a near 50% election within the standard deviation of one being and as of eligible voters = n and probability, p = 50% then per state and its weight of electoral votes:

sqrt(n)/2 (just like the standard deviation of a coin flip, or at least a coin flip with some third party exceptions.)

Hmmmm... seem similar to our election results right now for the past decade or so...

My Electoral prediction:

https://www.realclearpolling.com/my-map/2i3

AZ - leans R (cannot change it on the map due to technical error but it is 11 lean republican electoral votes

NV - toss up

WI - toss up

MI - toss up

PA - toss up

NC - leans R

GA - toss up

NH - leans D

VA - leans D

Totals:

Harris/Walz - 227

Trump/Vance - 229

Toss Up - 82

***too tight to call at this time, more polls, more debates needed.

Current Senate map prediction 09/7/2024 - Republican Senate Possible?

Republican Senate Possible?

https://www.realclearpolling.com/my-map/2qI

MT - R

NV - D

AZ - D

WI - D

MI - D

OH - D

PA - D

MD - D

FL - R

TX - R

Maybe MD, PA are toss ups, some polls are tied.

Net effect is GOP +2 at 49 Democratic and 51 Republican Senators

Republican Senate?

August payrolls grew by a less-than-expected 142,000, but unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%

https://youtu.be/gdikQqYy0g4?si=jpgKUETXPNHTFjzU

*How much is the BRICS alliance and trade issues with USD causing the market to shortfall in Fed Funds rate? How much of a lag between BRICS countries and alliances reducing trade with the US or USD versus American inflation (or effect thereof?)

I think the inflation forecast is very murky right now because of this issue.

Friday, September 6, 2024

Sanchez: We're in a moment of uncertainty, waiting for the Fed to act

https://youtu.be/qb-JekqcsKU?si=lo4mHKykdQSKiX4F

* [as reply to the last message] I was trying to be trite with my post above and you make a good point about incentives.

Originally, inflation is an incentive to push people (humans, businesses, corporations, etc...) into looking into producing more resources (aggregate supply) while keeping (aggregate) demand on a budget. There is some framework suggesting that we have hit a supply wall as well. Aggregate supply is made up of four components: labor, capital, technology, and institutional structure. If aggregate supply remains the same, but demand still grows, then price levels will continue to increase (this case inflation) as GDP growth stalls, this results into a (near) vertical line. The only way to decrease price level changes is to curb aggregate demand as what the Federal Reserve has done... raise interest rates.

The real issue is, have we as humans ran out of innovative ideas versus the velocity of demand to make an impact on aggregate supply to alleviate pricing pressure from demand? Probably not, unless there is resistance in the form of institutional structure corruption.... hence the UFO/UAP debate of hidden and unreleased technologies and why it might be important to tell the truth when it comes to "innovation;" but I digress. Furthermore, we do have some answer with labor and capital of the Cobb-Douglas production function: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobb%E2%80%93Douglas_production_function

but, not for technology (which could be random in effects...? and institutional structure, which could become shadowy from security and anti-espionage reasons.

So, to answer your question about inflation without jobs...ie stagflation. That is a scenario politicians, Federal Reserve officials, and economics want to avoid, but might not be able to in order to preserve growth (GDP or bank(s) balance sheet.) My personal policy is above 0 but keep inflation tame at 1% or lower until the stalemate ends or a better solution that is not commodity currency related.

Thursday, September 5, 2024

Sanchez: We're in a moment of uncertainty, waiting for the Fed to act

https://youtu.be/qb-JekqcsKU?si=CkSFg8rVveEpRr1T

*Until inflation is below 1% annual, reduce by 25 bps only per fed meeting.

3% is not the new 2%. 2% is still too high.

Yes, I am an inflation hawk; and I would rather see fed balance sheet adjustments than interest rate reductions until inflation is below 1%

China’s Risky New Megadams Lie in One of the World’s Most Remote Places | WSJ

https://youtu.be/6IzLzI_MbnE?si=joThKHDIJiVuzId6

*tagline: China building world largest domino set, nature to push the first one.

The water weight alone from the dams will cause earthquakes that then cause dam failures.

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