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Thursday, September 17, 2015

Short Term rates too low; fed should not go up

Fed should stay the same for the sake of the bill rates; labor slack, and inflation too low to their stated goal; unless they change their goals...

Here is hard core proof that they should not change rates. (some of the pics you need to read from bottom up by paragraph to get the total picture. Keep in mind a normal interest rate curve for t-bill and t-bonds (US treasury bonds) is longer timed bonds = higher interest rates.

An example would be end of 2006 going into 2007 rates tail:
(data gathered from: http://stockcharts.com/ ; I do not sponsor them, but they have a neat site for equities and debts.) [Make sure you scroll down to the bottom of this article as well for my opinion of where rates are to go.]
[Recorded on 11:50 AM 9/17/2015 Eastern Standard Time.]






Then what about the shortest term rate (read this from bottom to top to make the most since of it.)






And here are 2-year rates, the same applies but yield is also corresponding to time and the US house election cycle in congress...(that is a hint for you.) Again read from bottom to top.



It is my opinion that short term rates are way too low to raise for the fed. 




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