The map below is reflective of recent polling from realcearpolitics.com
If the election was held today. I do predict Biden would win with around at least 317 electoral points out of the 270 needed to win the presidency.
I will only name states that are listed on realcearpolitics.com as toss-up or too close to call.
States that are too close to call are
Wisconsin
Ohio
Georgia
Texas (Truly too hard to call; definitely needs more polling)
Nevada
States that would lean or vote for Biden
North Carolina
Virginia
Maine
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Minnesota
Florida
States that would lean or vote for Trump:
Iowa
Missouri
There is a strong mix of who to vote for or with in the states that are toss-up; especially in (high value state) Texas. There needs to be more polling in these toss-up states.
The tone has changed by the progressive press that Trump has lost the faith of the people due to mismanagement of the current virus pandemic. Additionally, the looming disappointment of Biden losing to Trump might be related to the carryover effect from last several month's progressive press saying that Trump will win the electoral college with unpopular vote (again) due to low Democratic voter turnout.
The narrative has changed due to more economic data that has come out about quarter 1 and some quarter 2 being less than favorable. It is true that the savings rate is higher and the economy could come back; however, this will reduce possibilities of options for the future.
The true testament of Biden becoming president of the United States will depend on his debate performance. If Biden lacks performance, then we will have a real race (to the bottom, again, just like 2016 election cycle.)
Source: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/create_your_own_president_map.html
No comments:
Post a Comment