3/10/2020 Democratic Primary Predictions

Only TWO candidates left: Biden and Sanders. Sanders campaign is trying to adapt to defeat Biden. Biden is a word salad mixed with an unknown speaking disorder. What will Sander's Do? What will the next several states vote for?

Certainly there is a disconnect between policy choice and policy presentation. What will the establishment and voters do? Maybe Trump will win against Biden per a debate? Or will Biden win because of deplorables that back Trump?

What will Sanders Do?

As the election turns:

My predictions will be State by state

Biden - has support from many former candidates. might have blind voters due to name recognition and not necessarily an ideal status of health about Biden. [Why does this sound like Hillary 2.0 or 3.0??] 

Sanders - has a large base and needs to hit hard against Biden in order to pull votes from Biden

Delegate count 

Biden + Bloomberg + Buttigieg + Klobuchar = 664 + 61 + 26 + 7 + 2 = 760 

Sanders has 573 

if warren is added then 637 

Sanders needs more delegates, Sanders needs more stragy to NOT lose to Biden and gang. 

---------

Rule: must be 15% or more of the vote to get party delegates for all states and territories

Sources:

https://www.270towin.com/content/thresholds-for-delegate-allocation-2020-democratic-primary-and-caucus

https://ballotpedia.org/Democratic_delegate_rules,_2020

--------------------

Democrats Abroad - Biden; insufficient polling

---
Idaho - Biden ; insufficient polling

-------

Michigan - Biden with about 50-60% of the vote; Sanders about 30-40% of the vote

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mi/michigan_democratic_presidential_primary-6835.html

-------

Mississippi - Biden ; insufficient polling


-------

Missouri - Biden with 50-65% of the vote; Sanders with 30-40% of the vote 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mo/missouri_democratic_primary-6930.html

------

North Dakota - Biden ; insufficient polling

----

Washington - Biden and Sanders narrowly tie 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/wa/washington_democratic_primary-7005.html

.