Hi:
I have not voted yet (as of 11:30 AM 3/3/2020 and plan to do so later today.
Sorry for the belated predictions. The last two candidates to drop out threw a wrench into my predictions and needed to wait for more data from Super Tuesday States. Overall, it looks like Biden did get a boost from the endorsements.
My predictions will be state by state.
The people who are left are
Sanders
Biden
Warren
Bloomberg
Gabbard {probably will not be reported due to low poll results in many states.}
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Rule: must be 15% or more of the vote to get party delegates for all states and territories
Sources:
https://www.270towin.com/content/thresholds-for-delegate-allocation-2020-democratic-primary-and-caucus
https://ballotpedia.org/Democratic_delegate_rules,_2020
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In CALIFORNIA:
SANDERS: 30-50% of the vote. A clear majority of the delegates
BIDEN: 20-25% of the vote
WARREN: Maybe 15% of the vote AND gets a few delegates (about less than ten)
BLOOMBERG: Zero, No Delegates - less than 15% of the vote
Source:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ca/california_democratic_primary-6879.html
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In TEXAS:
BIDEN: 25-30% of the vote
SANDERS: 25-30% of the vote
BLOOMBERG: 15-20% of the vote
WARREN: maybe 15-18% of the vote
Biden and Sanders virtual tie in TEXAS and split delegates accordingly
Bloomberg just shy of Biden and Sanders
Warren might get a few delegates
Source:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/tx/texas_democratic_primary-6875.html
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In NORTH CAROLINA:
BIDEN: Super Win of the State: 35-50% of the vote; half or majority of the delegates
SANDERS: 20-25% of the vote; half to a tenth of the delegates
BLOOMBERG: just shy of 15%; maybe a few delegates if any
WARREN: less than 15% of the vote; no delegates
Source:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nc/north_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-6874.html
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In VIRGINA:
Warning: Low Information, too few polls
BIDEN: Super Win of the State: 40-50% of the vote; half or majority of the delegates
SANDERS: 20-30% of the vote; half to a quarter of the delegates
BLOOMBERG: maybe 15% of the vote; maybe a few delegates
WARREN: maybe 15% of the vote; maybe a few delegates
Source:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/va/virginia_democratic_primary-6920.html
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In MINNESOTA:
Warning: Low Information, too few polls
NOTE THAT KLOBUCHAR VOTES MOVED TO ANOTHER CANDIDATE CHOICE SELECTION IMMEDIATELY!
SANDERS: 28-40% of the Vote; majority of the delegates
BIDEN: 20-35% of the vote; about 25-30% of the delegates
WARREN: 15-25% of the vote ; about 25-30% of the delegates
BLOOMBERG: maybe 15% of the vote; maybe a few delegates
Source:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mn/minnesota_democratic_primary-7035.html
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IN ALL OTHER STATES WITHOUT SUFFICIENT POLLING DATA:
{Limited to only first place finish due to limited polling data.}
ALABAMA: Similar to South Carolina: BIDEN winning
AMERICAN SAMOA: unknown; best prediction is BIDEN or SANDERS
ARKANSAS: BIDEN
COLORADO: SANDERS
MAINE: SANDERS
MASSACHUSETTS: WARREN (although if Sanders wins Warren is second)
OKLAHOMA: BIDEN
TENNESSEE: BIDEN
VERMONT: SANDERS
UTAH: BIDEN
DEMOCRATS ABROAD: Wait until next week when predictions are made for March 10th wave of primaries and caucuses.
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This is a difficult prediction of who will win due to Bloomberg mixing it up. One indicator is the North Carolina polling data suggests that the honeymoon period between Bloomberg and the voting public is over due to Sanders and Biden numbers going up with Bloomberg numbers going down. Of course Biden did bribe Klobuchar and Buttigieg with cabinet positions if winning the white house.
In essence: Biden has outflanked Sanders for the temporary being. Maybe Bloomberg and Sanders creates a brokered convention. Lets see what the results are. Results on late Wednesday or Thursday on this blog.
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