I will keep up as much as possible with politics on my blog.
The death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg has placed a more dire clock for the election on both parties.
If the election was held today. I do predict Biden would win with around at least 351 electoral points out of the 270 needed to win the presidency.
I will only name states that are listed on realcearpolitics.com as toss-up or too close to call.
States that are too close to call are
Florida
Michigan
North Carolina (thin margin)
Georgia
Arizona
Iowa (statiscal tie; more polling needed)
****The tied has turned and now even if not counting toss up states, Biden would win with 280 electoral votes. The election is still too far away and too iffy statistically to be sure though. Biden needs to maintain pressure. Trump needs to apply more pressure.
States that would lean or vote for Biden
New Hampshire
Wisconsin
Nevada
Pennsylvania
Ohio
States that would lean or vote for Trump:
Texas
--
The numbers are:
biden 280
trump 163
toss up 93
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no toss up
biden 351
trump 179
toss up 8 (ne and me electoral college districts not evaluated)
Iowa too close to call - statistical tie, more polling needed in this state
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Biden has secured more states via polling since last prediction. If Biden keeps moving positive polling in his direction it is more than likely to win election.
The tone has changed by the progressive press that Trump has lost the faith of the people due to mismanagement of the current virus pandemic. Additionally, the looming disappointment of Biden losing to Trump might be related to the carryover effect from last several month's progressive press saying that Trump will win the electoral college with unpopular vote (again) due to low Democratic voter turnout. The Democratic party is not helping the situation due to taking green party candidates off multiple state ballots. It is important to maintain choice.
The pandemic is still taking its toll, there is a waiting game of what would happen when vaccine is released and when N. America goes though Fall and Winter to see what covid-19 death rates would be. Such outcomes could affect whoever takes office next.
The sentiment is still true that Biden becoming president of the United States will depend on his debate performance. If Biden lacks performance, then we will have a true issue of seizure Trump or a lacking Biden presidency.
Biden has lost his no toss up's lead and such projection means that Trump still has an opportunity to win a loser's election (the loser is the Democratic and Republican parties.) The winner of the election will get more debt (to GDP ratio) than the American people can handle. The true winners will be the owners and investors of the Federal Reserve. Winners will also be US treasury holders due to the new Federal Reserve's stance of inflating the currency (such a plan will not work due to how the trade policy is different this time; but maybe that is the plan...?)
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