Today's posting based on real clear politics polling.
I will keep up as much as possible with politics on my blog.
With less than one month to election day. This race is now almost decided with the poor performance of the first debate (by both Biden and Trump.)
What I have heard is the second debate was better than the first. The mute function that the committee has placed is just plain wrong and raw. It is the political split that is causing the candidates to act in a way that is rude. (Besides the fact that both Trump and Biden have ties to the global cabal network that has influenced their thinking rather than working for the American People.) I will address the second debate later.
The death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg has placed a more dire clock for the election on both parties. COVID-19 is eroding the senate, the SCOTUS Ginsburg seat is still in play for vote after election (but after January confirmation?) As of now, it looks like the virus is on the supreme court, not any political party or human:
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/10/supreme-court-trump-covid/616608/
It is possible that the Ginsburg seat may be filled in before the January Presidential inauguration; during the lame duck period from election day though January's inauguration day.
If the election was held today. I do predict Biden would win with around at least 355 electoral points out of the 270 needed to win the presidency.
There are 3 states that are thin margin states and the State of Maine that has ranked choice voting. It is possible that this election will have a green candidate senator from Maine instead of a Democrat.
I will only name states that are listed on realcearpolitics.com as toss-up or too close to call.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/create_your_own_president_map.html
States that are too close to call are
(in parenthesis is leaning that direction)
North Carolina (democrat)
Wisconsin (democrat)
Florida (democrat)
Michigan (democrat)
Georgia (thin margin) (democrat)
Arizona (democrat)
Iowa (thin margin) (democrat)
Ohio (thin margin) (republican)
Texas (republican)
States that would lean or vote for Biden
Nevada
Pennsylvania
Minnesota
States that would lean or vote for Trump:
*polling not strong enough to decide a state for trump
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The numbers are:
biden 268
trump 125
toss up 145
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no toss up
biden 355
trump 181
toss up 2 (ne and me electoral college districts not evaluated)
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If Biden keeps moving positive polling in his direction it is more than likely to win election.
*[The tone has changed by the progressive press that Trump has lost the faith of the people due to mismanagement of the current virus pandemic. Additionally, the looming disappointment of Biden losing to Trump might be related to the carryover effect from last several month's progressive press saying that Trump will win the electoral college with unpopular vote (again) due to low Democratic voter turnout. The Democratic party is not helping the situation due to taking green party candidates off multiple state ballots. It is important to maintain choice.]
*I have said this previously starred above. Overall, lets see what happens in the state of Maine with ranked choice voting. It will be worth studying the results of Maine votes as it could offer third party candidates more of a way to win. There is a chance that the green party candidate can cause a valid polling split of a three way tie. If so, then both the democratic and republican candidates are in trouble. If not the presidential election then at least the senate candidate.
[because of such polling standards that might reduce democratic and republican party majorities in the Senate race; I will track the senate race too.]
The pandemic is still taking its toll, there is a waiting game of what would happen when vaccine is released; and when N. America goes though Fall and Winter to see what covid-19 death rates would be. Such outcomes could affect whoever takes office next. It is now affecting real politics as the Atlantic article suggests with the Ginsburg seat nomination.
The sentiment is still true that Biden becoming president of the United States will depend on his debate performance. If Biden lacks performance, then we will have a true issue of seizure Trump or a lacking Biden presidency. Trump obviously lost the debate. Biden just went par or bogey (golf scoring terms.) If debate performance continues to be this bad; it is likely that a third party candidate will get more votes than what the "cabal" is comfortable with.
Biden was better in the second debate; however the muting of microphones is a huge concern about freedom of speech for the rest of us.
The sentiment generated by both political parties as well as covid-19 has increased the incentive for early voting. In my home state alone (North Carolina) about one-third to half the population has already voted. I plan for longer lines at the ballot box this year.
The winner of the election will get more debt (to GDP ratio) than the American people can handle. The true winners will be the owners and investors of the Federal Reserve. Winners will also be US treasury holders due to the new Federal Reserve's stance of inflating the currency (such a plan will not work due to how the trade policy is different this time; but maybe that is the plan...?)
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2020 SENATE RACE PREDICTIONS AND POLL WATCH
I will not produce a map as only 1/3 of all senate seats are ever up for election every two years.
The Senate is 2 seats per state with 6 year terms.
It is the opinion of tonyotag that there should be an amendment to the constitution of the United States to up representation to three Senators per state with 6 year terms (election every two years.) Why do so? To gauge the parties and the will of the people better; better statistical averaging over a 12 or 18 year period.
All numbers are based on polling
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/create_your_own_senate_map.html
senate as counted with toss up
democrat 47
republican 47
toss up 6
senate as counted as no toss up
democrat 51
republican 49
States with consistent polling for one candidate
Maine (democrat) (depends on ranked choice voting; green party candidate may have a chance to win the seat)
Minnesota (democrat)
Montana (republican)
toss up Senate seats
North Carolina (democrat)
South Carolina (republican)
Georgia 1 (republican)
Michigan (democrat)
Iowa (democrat)
Arizona (democrat)
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