Today's posting based on real clear politics polling.
This is the last posting for prediction of the election. The election results will be posted, but I do not know when as this election could be highly contested.
I will keep up as much as possible with politics on my blog.
With less than one week to election day. This race is now almost decided with the poor performance of the both debates (by both Biden and Trump.) Biden did win both debates. Trump was ready in the second debate (the third debate scheduled) and could be the case due to the suspicion of that Trump was sick at the first debate.
What I have heard is the second debate was better than the first. The mute function that the committee has placed is just plain wrong and raw. It is the political split that is causing the candidates to act in a way that is rude. (Besides the fact that both Trump and Biden have ties to the global cabal network that has influenced their thinking rather than working for the American People.)
I will address both debates later. I, tonyotag, have not watched both debates due to many schedule conflicts. That is important due to my understanding is coming from news articles and my mother watching the debates. Of which, I, tonyotag, do plan to watch the debates and give my opinion, which will probably happen after the debate.
A new, conservative, supreme court justice was approved by the Senate. This may cause a Democratically led presidency and congress to vote in more justices to sit on SCOTUS. If so, that would be controversial. It is my prediction that 11 or 13 Justices might be sitting on SCOTUS by the end of the Biden presidency pending on Congressional election.
If the election was held today. I do predict Biden would win with around at least 344 electoral points out of the 270 needed to win the presidency.
There are 2 to 3 states that are thin margin states and the State of Maine that has ranked choice voting. It is possible that this election will have a green candidate senator from Maine instead of a Democrat.
Georgia has a special primary election and is possible from polling that two democratic senators might come from Georgia.
I will only name states that are listed on realcearpolitics.com as toss-up or too close to call.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/create_your_own_president_map.html
States that are too close to call are
(in parenthesis is leaning that direction)
North Carolina (democrat)
Pennsylvania (democrat)
Ohio (truly too close to call) (tie)
Wisconsin (democrat)
Florida (democrat)
Georgia (thin margin) (democrat)
Michigan (democrat)
Arizona (thin margin) (republican)
Iowa (democrat)
Texas (republican)
States that would lean or vote for Biden
Nevada
Minnesota
States that would lean or vote for Trump:
*polling not strong enough to decide a state for trump
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The numbers are:
biden 232
trump 125
toss up 181
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no toss up
biden 344
trump 174
toss up 20 (Ohio too close to call) (ne and me electoral college districts not evaluated)
****Keep in mind that Arizona and Georgia are thin margin polling and could be reverse in actual winning (AZ for Biden and GA for Trump.) Ohio is truly a coin flip and I, tonyotag, really do not know. Even if Biden lost all three states (AZ, GA, OH to Trump) Biden still has a high chance of getting more than 270 electoral votes.
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If Biden has accurate polling per how the states count casted ballots then Biden will win the election. It is possible that Biden loses the election due to state's restrictions on voting; including but not limited to absentee and mail in ballots. Nationwide, mail in ballots are higher than previous years due to pandemic.
*[The tone has changed by the progressive press that Trump has lost the faith of the people due to mismanagement of the current virus pandemic. Additionally, the looming disappointment of Biden losing to Trump might be related to the carryover effect from last several month's progressive press saying that Trump will win the electoral college with unpopular vote (again) due to low Democratic voter turnout. The Democratic party is not helping the situation due to taking green party candidates off multiple state ballots. It is important to maintain choice.]
*I have said this previously starred above. Overall, lets see what happens in the state of Maine with ranked choice voting. It will be worth studying the results of Maine votes as it could offer third party candidates more of a way to win. There is a chance that the green party candidate can cause a valid polling split of a three way tie. If so, then both the democratic and republican candidates are in trouble. If not the presidential election then at least the senate candidate.
[because of such polling standards that might reduce democratic and republican party majorities in the Senate race; I will track the senate race too.]
The pandemic is still taking its toll, there is a waiting game of what would happen when vaccine is released; and when N. America goes though Fall and Winter to see what covid-19 death rates would be. Such outcomes could affect whoever takes office next.
*[The sentiment is still true that Biden becoming president of the United States will depend on his debate performance. If Biden lacks performance, then we will have a true issue of seizure Trump or a lacking Biden presidency. Trump obviously lost the debate. Biden just went par or bogey (golf scoring terms.) If debate performance continues to be this bad; it is likely that a third party candidate will get more votes than what the "cabal" is comfortable with.] As due to a low bar that Trump set for the office.
Biden was better in the second debate; however the muting of microphones is a huge concern about freedom of speech for the rest of us.
The sentiment generated by both political parties as well as covid-19 has increased the incentive for early voting. In my home state alone (North Carolina) about one-third to half the population has already voted. I plan for longer lines at the ballot box this year.
The winner of the election will get more debt (to GDP ratio) than the American people can handle. The true winners will be the owners and investors of the Federal Reserve. Winners will also be US treasury holders due to the new Federal Reserve's stance of inflating the currency (such a plan will not work due to how the trade policy is different this time; but maybe that is the plan...?)
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2020 SENATE RACE PREDICTIONS AND POLL WATCH
For the Senate, I will not produce a map as only 1/3 of all senate seats are ever up for election every two years.
The Senate is 2 seats per state with 6 year terms.
It is the opinion of tonyotag that there should be an amendment to the constitution of the United States to up representation to three Senators per state with 6 year terms (election every two years.) Why do so? To gauge the parties and the will of the people better; better statistical averaging over a 12 or 18 year period.
All numbers are based on polling
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/create_your_own_senate_map.html
senate as counted with toss up
democrat 49
republican 45
toss up 6
senate as counted as no toss up
democrat 53**
republican 47**
**2 senate seats are contested in one state: ga1 and ga2 are hard to call
ga2 is a primary and looks like the winner will be democrat; a second election might happen where the margin of winning is thinner than predicted.
I, tonyotag, stand by my prediction of 51 democrat senate seat winners and 48 republican seat winners and 1 seat undecided pending second round election in ga2
States with consistent polling for one candidate:
Maine (democrat) (depends on ranked choice voting; green party candidate may have a chance to win the seat)
Minnesota (democrat)
Michigan (democrat)
*There are no republicans' seats that are guaranteed by polling; they are all too close to call
toss up Senate seats
North Carolina (democrat)
South Carolina (republican)
Georgia 1 (republican)
Georgia 2 (democrat) (primary, see note above)
Iowa (democrat)
Arizona (democrat)
Montana (republican)
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Tonyotag's Presidential Election Map for 2020 Prediction:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/create_your_own_president_map.html
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