I will keep up as much as possible with politics on my blog.
The map below is reflective of recent polling from realcearpolitics.com
If the election was held today. I do predict Biden would win with around at least 351 electoral points out of the 270 needed to win the presidency.
I will only name states that are listed on realcearpolitics.com as toss-up or too close to call.
States that are too close to call are
Wisconsin
Ohio
Georgia
Texas
Nevada
North Carolina
Maine
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Minnesota
Florida
****This is too many states to call too close to call if Biden wants to win. Many of the states do eventually vote for Biden...but Trump has timing on his hands.
States that would lean or vote for Biden
New Hampshire
Arizona
States that would lean or vote for Trump:
Iowa
Missouri
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The numbers are:
biden 227
trump 131
toss up 180
more polling data is showing mixed polling across more swing states. Biden did have a guarantee win; now it is a guess.
no toss up
biden 351
trump 185
toss up 2 (ne and me electoral college votes are not evaluated)
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There is a strong mix of who to vote for or with in the states that are toss-up; especially in (high value state) Texas and North Carolina. There needs to be more polling in these toss-up states.
The tone has changed by the progressive press that Trump has lost the faith of the people due to mismanagement of the current virus pandemic. Additionally, the looming disappointment of Biden losing to Trump might be related to the carryover effect from last several month's progressive press saying that Trump will win the electoral college with unpopular vote (again) due to low Democratic voter turnout.
The pandemic is still taking its toll, there is a waiting game of what would happen when vaccine is released and when N. America goes though Fall and Winter to see what covid-19 death rates would be. Such outcomes could affect whoever takes office next.
The sentiment is still true that Biden becoming president of the United States will depend on his debate performance. If Biden lacks performance, then we will have a true issue of seizure Trump or a lacking Biden presidency.
Below is a no toss up's map.
Yes, Biden has lost his no toss up's lead and such projection means that Trump still has an opportunity to win a loser's election (the loser is the Democratic and Republican parties.) The winner of which would be US treasury holders due to the new Federal Reserve's stance of inflating the currency (such a plan will not work due to how the trade policy is different this time; but maybe that is the plan...?)
Source: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/create_your_own_president_map.html
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