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Sunday, February 16, 2020

Delegate Count and Update

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/democratic_delegate_count.html

Democratic race to the White House Delegate count

Buttigieg 22

Sanders 21

Warren 8

Klobuchar 7

Biden 6

All other candidates have none

Bargaining power: Warren + Klobuchar + Biden = 21


Buttigieg and Sanders are virtually tied and recent polls suggest Sanders and Buttigieg tiening in Nevada. Biden might win or tie in South Carolina with Sanders, polls show.

I, tonyotag, will place out a prediction on Thursday 2/20/2020 about Nevada polls and who will win or tie for placement.

Right now the real power is third place when candidate drops out then endorses one of the leaders. Will Warren or Biden endorse Sanders or Buttigieg? It really depends on how the voting happens in later states. I predict there will not be a clear winner of the Democratic Primaries until larger delegate count states make produce a vote...late spring: Mid April or May. There is a chance this might be dragged out to the Democratic Convention. 

Percentages also will converge when candidates drop out at well: 
Yang 
Deval Patrick 
Bennet 

In total all three had... Yang only 4% in Nevada. These voters will now have to choose another candidate. 

Nationally maybe only 5% would vote for Yang, Patrick, or Bennet. It is now possible that one candidate will rise when more voters are left to choose another candidate (or just not vote at all.) 
 

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