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Thursday, February 27, 2020

South Carolina Primary 2020 Predictions

Rule: must be 15% or more of the vote to get party delegates for all states and territories

Sources:
https://www.270towin.com/content/thresholds-for-delegate-allocation-2020-democratic-primary-and-caucus

https://ballotpedia.org/Democratic_delegate_rules,_2020


Top SOUTH CAROLINA candidates

Biden: 20-35% of the vote; about 50-75% of the delegates

Sanders: 20-25% of the vote about 30-60% of the delegates 

Steyer: no delegates, just shy of getting 15% of the vote

Buttigieg: 10% or less of the delegates

Warren: 10% or less of the delegates

Klobuchar: no delegates

Sanders winning an overwhelming number of delegates in the past 3 primary and caucus elections is now at steak. Sanders has a chance of losing the lead to Biden. South Carolina's polling has plenty of room for error; however, the south in general is primarily more conservative. The culture of the South (especially rural areas) is slower information assimilation (not intelligence) of the voters. Habits differ geographically, this is always true relative to the technology and reach of information at hand. Biden and the democratic establishment has an upper-hand of this info.**

**NOTE: The recent polling spike for Biden is evidence of the Southern Stragety that Biden (and maybe Bloomberg might be employing.)

IMAGES ARE DATE STAMPED AS OF THE PUBLISHMENT OF THIS BLOG POST: 02/27/2020

Source: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-6824.html



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