IOWA CAUCUS 2020 [UPDATE]

As part of statistics, it is important to review the prediction data with the actual data.

As predictions go in a dynamic environment that the Iowa Caucuses are then I guess that I did pretty good considering the polling data at the time.

My prediction is in brackets [] and the following results are in normal text.

resource: https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/iowa-caucuses-live-results-coverage-2020/index.html

GRAPHIC ABOVE IS FROM CNN [ cnn.com ]

Top IOWA candidates

Sanders: [20 to 25% of the delegates]
is in a statistical dead heat with Buttigieg. Sanders has 26.1% of the vote.
my prediction was short by a few percentage points but probably within a margin of error.


Biden: [18 to 25% of the delegates]
The polling was over-counting a win for Biden, it is my opinion that the pollsters are averaging out historical polls for current statistics (more than what realclearpolitics.com does in its reporting.)
biden is forth statewide with 15.8% of the vote.

Buttigieg: [15 to 19% of the delegates]
I was thinking Buttigieg would come in 3rd pace as the polling predicted.
is in a statistical dead heat with Sanders. Buttigeg has 26.2% of the vote.
my prediction was short; statisticians and pollsters will need to study why the polls were short before the election. (This is probably a need for better outreach.)

Warren: [if any to 18% of the delegates]
Warren was higher than predicted as 3rd place with 18.0% of the vote. To my surprise, I predicted the percentage correctly on the upper bound, I though she would only get 13 or 15%. Many counties that voted for Bernie also had Warren in 2nd place.


Klobuchar [is a notable rising underdog with no delegates]
It is a surprise that she made more than a few percentage points. Still in 5th place; she received 12.6% of Iowa vote

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Note that the polls were slightly accurate about the momentum of the campaign. Only Biden and Buttigieg polls were incorrect. Was this name recognition or shyness for polling on the part of the voters? (Being that many voters saw name recognition more so than what they would vote for; and, Buttigieg voters were shy in polling or had a poor outreach by pollsters?) Nevertheless, it is important to recognize that even the election process of Iowa caucuses were called into question about the reporting of results. It should be noted that New Hampshire election will solidify more results AND delegates matter more when the vote is this split up (especially when the candidate receives less than 50% of the vote.)