In these predictions I try to use accurate polling averages and the rules of the state to predict who wins what in the primary. This year (2020) the Democratic primary is the the only primary that is really running. It would be interesting if Trump loses multiple cacuses anyway.
All polling data used will be (as long as the site is running correct numbers) is https://www.realclearpolitics.com/
I, tonyotag, will also try to be as accurate as possible. My objective is percentage of the vote, not necessary the delegate count up front. However, the delegates do matter to become the party's nominee. Additionally, the prediction will be targeted for the Sunday preceding the primary vote OR the previous day, OR (not the target of but) the day of before official totals come out. Finally, on days of multiple states, the blog may become long and polling data might become very scattered; I, tonyotag, will do my best for the most probable prediction that is as scientific as possible.
It is hereby that I state that Bernie Sanders is my preferred candidate; however, I, tonyotag, will stay as scientific to the polling AND demographic shifts as allows.
IOWA CAUCUS PREDICTION
Rule: must be 15% or more of the vote to get party delegates for all states and territories
Sources:
https://www.270towin.com/content/thresholds-for-delegate-allocation-2020-democratic-primary-and-caucus
https://ballotpedia.org/Democratic_delegate_rules,_2020
Top IOWA candidates
Sanders: 20 to 25% of the delegates
Biden: 18 to 25% of the delegates
Buttigieg: 15 to 19% of the delegates
Warren: if any to 18% of the delegates
Klobuchar is a notable rising underdog with no delegates
All others get no delegates and more candidates will retire their campaigns by the end of the week OR right after the New Hampshire Primary on 2/11/2020. It really depends on attrition of the candidates.
IMAGES ARE DATE STAMPED AS OF THE PUBLISHMENT OF THIS BLOG POST:
SOURCE: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-6731.html
****Sorry for the image size, I will try to make it more concise in the next prediction (New Hampshire primary)
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