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Friday, August 1, 2014

Current Stock Downturn has High energy Correlation

Hi internet and Business Blogging world.

On Bloomberg.com and many other news outlets, as far as I can tell, the economy is just fine and certain feelings endowed are just wrong. A rule of thumb is that if employment remains high enough and prices decrease with stable labor prices then the overall working people (or those making an income) are getting a raise. This is called real wages (or real income) and is denoted in economics as (Labor (or income) price per hour) divided by overall price levels in the economy. Therefore if both prices decrease and labor or income prices remain the same or increase as well, it is a "raise" as well. 

Check out these stock symbols on stockcharts.com (Note that I am not affiliated with the website, it is just popular for chart guys and investment watching)

$DJUSEU - Dow Jones US Electricity Index
$DJUSVE - Dow Jones US Conventional Electricity Index
$GASO - gasoline index (add to this price for taxes, transport costs, and other retail costs at the pump)
$WTIC - West Texas intermediate crude price

and compare this with 

$gold - price per troy ounce
$silver - price per troy ounce
$copper -price per ounce
$indu -Dow Jones Industrial Index

If all of these are in a high correlation for a specific time period, then I can conclude that the US economy is growing at a specific rate. Especially if new things and services are done (ie labor paid) then there is a possibility that lower commodity prices equals a short term (and hopefully long term) real labor (or income) price rise.

Remember this is only true for a percentage of the spender's budget relegated to the specific commodity. 

 It can be especially true if the price breaks the 200 day average or even the 40 week average continuous line (seen on stockcharts.com gallery view. note that Point and Figure View charts ( the X's and O's chart) is just as important most of the time.)


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